Whether the 40 Year Pattern of Lower Gold Prices in August Will Hold True
The bickering by Congress over the U.S. debt ceiling has caused the price of gold and silver to bounce a little higher for the month of July. I had expected Congress to come to a conclusion and a return to normalcy but the bickering between both sides has only caused consumers to lose faith in their efforts and thus the price of gold and silver has moved higher.
But this pattern of higher prices in July is normal. In fact, it is a 40 year pattern that I first reference in June when I wrote "Dollar Cost Average Into Physical Gold And Silver On Pullbacks." I have copied the 40 year charts revealing the patterns for gold and silver again below. Please note the rise in prices in July and subsequent fall in prices into August-September.
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What The Experts Continue to Say
Kitco.com is a website I frequent to see what the so-called experts have to say about gold (sans Jon Nadler). They have a pattern of printing articles that fall in line with the normal, gold up, dollar down pattern. But when the price of gold is down and the dollar down, they don't have a real reason for it, so they look for other economic data or simply call it "profit taking" to explain what's going on in the precious metals market. Like yesterday, for example. At the time of this writing, gold was down $4.90, the dollar Index broke below 74, and below were the Kitco headlines at that time.
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It's easy to fit whatever is going on with gold to whatever data you want. Trying to predict what will happen in the short term for gold isn't easy. But the set up for the August decline in price is one that investors should take note of.
Signs of Life Coming for the Economy?
Congress has a week to get some sort of a deal made and they will. While I am surprised it has taken them this long, they have to get something done or the U.S. will get its first lowered credit rating ever and the U.S. voters won't let any congressman off the hook come election time if that's the case. Their careers are at stake here and they will come to an agreement.
Consumer confidence is up . You won't see an article like that on Kitco. For that matter, most every other gold site talks about inflation as the main reason to own gold. Most don't realize that the purchasing power of gold rises in deflation, not inflation. While there has been inflation in certain sectors (food and energy), the biggest of them all, housing, has been deflating for five years.
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"This (plan to raise the debt ceiling) is only one step and the US will still have issues to face looking ahead so it's not an end to the gold bull," Norman said. The dollar enjoyed a relief rally against the yen and Swiss franc also weighed on
For those who are thinking of buying gold and silver, dollar cost averaging into a position is the best way to play it. Take the allocation you want to invest into precious metals and periodically buy over the next few months.
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Gold Double-Eagle
The Liberty started life as a standing figure on the $20, double-eagle gold piece of 1907 designed by Augustus Saint-Gaudens. Originally two high relief versions were produced. Neither of them stacked well and they were never released for commercial use. Only 20 ultra high relief coins were produced and are worth millions of dollars each. 12,317 of the high-relief version were produced but even these were deemed unsuitable for commerce. For obvious reasons both are highly sought after. The coin considered suitable for commerce, a flattened version, was minted from 1907 until 1933. All versions are highly collectable and could make you rich if you find one or two.
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